Jeanne MacVicar Blog

Notes from Sereno CEO Regarding Current Real Estate Market

Tue, 28 Sep 2010 00:00:00 -0700

1. Median Price- The early summer slowdown and particularly the moderating pace of upper end sales following a brisk first half of 2010 brought the Median price down to $537,000 for August in Santa Clara County (which is down from $560,000 the prior month). The August Median is close to April of this year ($533,000 and is $33,000 lower than August 2008 and $37,000 higher than August one year ago). The SCC Median reached its low point in March of 2009 at $415,000. As we predicted over the last few months of 2009 and beginning of 2010, we anticipated a higher rate of upper end sales in Santa Clara County (particularly between 2-5+ million) during most of the first six months of 2010. As a significant number of these "upper end" properties closed escrow in the first half of 2010, the median price in SCC climbed well into the $550,000 range. It will be interesting to see how the median is impacted during the balance of 2010. We are beginning to see a slight push this fall in most price ranges and as some additional upper end homes sell and close escrow before year-end, it is probable that the median will close out 2010 around $550,000 which is still nearly $75,000 higher than December of 2009.

2. Supply&Demand (Units)- We continue to see a significant distinction as we compare August 2008 with 2010 in the following categories; For Sale (supply/inventory), Under Contract (pending sales) and Sold (closed escrows). To illustrate when we compare August 08 with the same month in 2010 we see the following- For Sale properties/supply continues to remain significantly: down 39.2%. The number of under contract properties (pending sales) continues to soar- up 45.8% and the sold/closed escrows remain up an impressive 31.8%. The pattern and direction of this market for the past 12 months continues to be the same story; declining overall supply/inventory, increasing new sales and closed escrows.

3. Month's Supply of Inventory & Days on Market- The overall Months Supply of Inventory (months of inventory available based on the total existing supply divided by the rate of sales) is at the lowest point in the past two years at 2.9 months supply at month end (which is down from 3.5 months supply in July 2010). This is down from a 2 year peak of 14.2 months in January of 08. NAR Months Supply of Inventory came in at 4.0 months for August (SCC continues to lead the national figures and has significantly lower inventory than the balance of the country) Days on market has averaged between 45 and 60 days for the past 7-8 months, and has increased slightly over the past three months from 60 days .

4. Sales Absorption- The Absorption metrics are quite compelling with the comparison of August 2008 vs August 2010 with under contract properties up an incredible 123.2% and closed/sold escrows up 102.3%. 22.2% of the active properties/listings were under contract as of August 30, 2010, up from a final figure of 21.1 percent in July of 2010.

Our area continues to lead the way for the US in the economic recovery. California is leading the nation per most economists and Northern California, in particular Silicon Valley/Bay Area, is leading Southern California. We are fortunate to be at the pulse of real estate sales activity. Although the market took a slight pause over the summer as some of the higher end sales activity cooled slightly from its first half pace, we have seen a significant increase in activity over the past several weeks. Remember, in 2009 we had a very slow start and ended the year with tremendous activity as government stimulus brought many buyers out into the market (December of 2009 was the biggest closing month of the year last year). In 2010, we have had a significant sales volume increase in comparison to (much due to the increased median/higher priced home sales coming back to life) the first half of 2009, while I expect the second half of this year to be respectable, I don't anticipate the rush/push of year end activity we experienced in 2009. 2010 will end up being a tremendous year for Sereno Group as an organization and the beginning of a turning point in a positive direction for the real estate market overall.

As a company, Sereno Group remains significantly up in sales volume (57%+) this YTD as compared to the same period in 2009. Most of the market and leading peer companies are up between 15-21% this year to date as compared to last year which is a strong indication for overall improving market conditions. We continue to enjoy the most balanced, healthy and active residential real estate market we have seen in over 2-3 years.

Jeanne MacVicar
(650) 947-2979
(650) 743-5010 (cell)
jeanne@serenogroup.com<mailto:jeanne@serenogroup.com>
www.jeannemacvicar.com

Sereno Group Los Altos
369 S. San Antonio Rd.
Fax (650) 947-3079
DRE# 00764179
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Sereno Group Ranked 4th most productive in Valley

Wed, 02 Jun 2010 10:22:00 -0700

Sereno Group Real Estate Ranked 4th Most Productive Brokerage in Silicon Valley by The Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal

Posted by Heather Rollins Tue, 01 Jun 2010

LOS GATOS, CA—May 23, 2010. Sereno Group Real Estate has been named the 4^th most productive residential real estate brokerage by gross sales volume in Silicon Valley for 2009 by The Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal. The rankings were announced in the Business Journal’s annual and prestigious Book of Lists on April 30^th.

“We are extremely honored to be ranked among the top producing brokerages in the Silicon Valley and tremendously proud of our team and their accomplishment,” said Chris Trapani, President and CEO of Sereno Group, “The recognition is also a fantastic acknowledgement of the quality of our people. Our team was able to accomplish their ranking with approximately 10% of the overall sales team as compared to the larger brokerages.”

“We are honored to be recognized on the list but have also set a goal to continue providing the best and highest quality service to our clients and community,” continued Trapani, “It’s a wonderful step in our overall journey.”

The Book of Lists is an annual publication produced by The Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal and is looked at as one of the most prestigious recognitions for businesses in Silicon Valley. The publication lists the top businesses in all facets of the Silicon Valley business community and has over 2,637 top businesses listed and recognized.

For more information, visit http://www.bizjournals.com.

Open since July 1, 2006, Sereno Group Real Estate has quickly established itself as a market leader by continually attracting top producing agents in the Silicon Valley. During this time, Sereno Group has achieved the highest per agent productivity for residential real estate brokers in the county year to date. Sereno Group now has four offices located in Los Gatos, Saratoga, Los Altos, and Santa Cruz. The 124 team of Sereno Group agents sell and service the Santa Clara, San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties and points beyond.

For more information, visit www.serenogroup.com.

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Monthly Market Reports: August 2009

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2009.08.PCT-under-contract-PDF

2009.08-SupplyDemand-PDF